So, How did we end up here?
We’re several days after the election now. Not quite a week, but plenty of time to step back and unpack “what happened” in an election result that no one saw coming, save perhaps the top two candidates.
Braggadocio aside, opposed to anyone claiming it was a blowout, I’d hate to go do the research but this seemed to be a race where placement was fairly even split. What the campaigns should have done can only be viewed in hindsight.
If you look at the numbers, it really was a narrow band where everyone had their supporters. The low vote was Hansen at 21% and the high vote was Doeden at 31% That only represented a difference of 13k votes. Compare that to Jackley and Rounds, who posted nearly six times that between they and their opponents, winning with 79% and 76% of the vote. No one really broke from the pack in the Governor’s race, so it was a mad scramble to election day.
The fatal error in the race was that they underestimated Toby Doeden’s performance, and never went after him with any hard criticism.
If you think about it, it’s a lot like the Rounds – Kirby – Barnett Race, where Kirby and Barnett went after each other, but left generally left Mike alone. The major candidates used negative attacks to drive down the other guy’s totals and turnout, but like Mike Rounds, the attacks didn’t happen to Toby, so he benefitted from the hall pass.
In this case, Toby was thought of as the person they wanted to be in the runoff against, so you really didn’t see any commercials poking at him, while everyone else was busy going after each other. And, Doeden was able to level unanswered attacks at them, such as the “Jailhouse Jon Hansen – weak on crime attack,” and attacks on Dusty, Rhoden, etc.
Dusty was stung by votes he’s managed to get a pass from the voters on before, such as on the January 6 investigation, and a vote to reject an atypical funding mechanism for the border wall. Keep in mind that President Trump had actively endorsed Dusty for Congress since those votes. So the issues weren’t enough to make the president mad enough to sandbag Dusty then. But Dusty’s opponents used them to great effect now.
As for the front runner, in the contest they did not define Toby, so he had complete autonomy to define himself, and his commercials were effective in doing so. They might have been very rote, but he got them to sink in with the Trumpy faction of the Republican Party. And he held enough of the vote together to take the win.
69% of voters voted against Toby. 75% of voters voted against Larry Rhoden. How can they put themselves over the top?
Many of the traditional financial backers who backed Dusty’s campaign will shift over to Larry Rhoden if he asks, and many will just send checks in to ingratiate themselves. In fact, I’ve already been told that the money spigot has opened hard for our current Governor. But, it’s not as if money has been a barrier for Toby Doeden. But what is in play?
Right now there are nearly 45% of supporters of the other candidates in play. Interestingly, both of those other campaigns have the ground game that Rhoden and Doeden campaigns both largely lack. Rhoden had a shoestring staff with just a few volunteers. Doeden’s team is not exactly known for their experience in South Dakota politics.
So where are they going to get them in this mad 8 week scramble?
Jon Hansen is aligned to many of the NIMBY’s who effectively fought pipelines, and are now fighting Data Centers (at the same time they’re all posting to facebook with AI)
Dusty Johnson had his strike team, which is South Dakota’s gold standard, as they were the go to group for multiple candidates for petition signature gathering, door to door, sign and literature distribution, etc. If there was a need for a ground presence for the major state and federal races, as well as some legislative contests, they had it down to a science, and practiced those skills for more than 6 years.
Now, both of those teams are up for grabs.
While Toby Doeden claimed on election night Dusty’s people would go to him.. I’ve spoken with many of the team leaders personally, and no, those strike team members haven’t been on the phone with him, and they frankly laughed at the notion. Right now, they’re keeping their cards close. One or two have gravitated to Rhoden at this point, but otherwise many are keeping their powder dry.
Hansen’s people spent the last few months at war with the Doeden people on-line, so you don’t see him giving them any direction. Like with Dusty’s team, there are a few starting to drift in, but no major pronouncements yet. By the same token, some are looking at Rhoden as well.
I think there are several from both camps in the Sioux Falls area who are more interested in the mayoral runoff at the moment to help cleanse the palate before they jump back into the primary fray.
But the former ground level campaigns from those who were not successful are out there, and whomever can capture the interest of those retail level volunteers would help add an element to complete their campaign as they push forward in the remaining weeks.
Putting in the framework to “seal the deal” is an important first task for the two candidates in the runoff.
We will see in the coming weeks how well they are able to do that job.
